Trump Orders Resumption of Nuclear Weapons Tests: Is China Conducting Secret Ones?

This article was originally written in Arabic by Mohamed Aletr.

On October 30, 2025, President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he had directed the Pentagon to immediately begin nuclear weapons testing, “on an equal basis with nuclear powers like China and Russia.”

The announcement marked a sharp shift after more than three decades of an almost complete freeze on open nuclear testing in the West — and especially in the United States, which last conducted a nuclear detonation in 1992.

The administration has not yet released any official details on when or where the tests will take place. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the department is moving quickly to carry out Trump’s order. Energy Secretary Chris Wright added that “people will not see explosions or anything resembling past nuclear tests,” noting that the tests under discussion involve systems testing and “do not include any actual atomic detonations.”

With the nature of the potential U.S. tests still unclear, Trump’s announcement alone has stirred international debate over nuclear balance, deterrence, disarmament, and the prospect of a renewed nuclear arms race.

Why Is the United States Readdressing the Nuclear Testing Issue?

The United States halted nuclear explosive testing in 1992 after conducting more than 1,050 tests, including atmospheric and underwater detonations. The collapse of the Soviet Union, coupled with Congressional pressure to impose a temporary freeze, led to the end of actual nuclear testing programs. This paved the way for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which the United States signed under President Clinton in 1996 but has never formally ratified, along with other nuclear powers such as China and Israel. Countries like Pakistan, North Korea, and India have neither signed nor ratified the treaty.

Since then, the United States has relied on simulation testing through the Pentagon’s Stockpile Stewardship Program, designed to evaluate the safety and reliability of the nuclear arsenal and, in theory, update it. The program uses scientific data and computer modeling to replace the previous three-stage process of nuclear weapons development: design, testing, and certification.

For Donald Trump, however, “there was no other choice,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social, citing Russia and China as powerful competitors poised to match U.S. nuclear strength. He framed his decision to resume nuclear weapons testing as a way to keep the United States “on par with the testing programs of other nations.”

U.S. officials, including the Defense and Energy Secretaries and Vice President J.D. Vance, described the move as a measure to ensure the stockpile’s reliability and maintain a credible deterrent, in light of what they see as global nuclear challenges.

Even if the tests are limited to non-explosive experiments, as Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested in a statement described as ambiguous, the decision raises questions about the effectiveness of the international system established after the Cold War, particularly the nonproliferation regime.

Global Responses to Trump’s Nuclear Testing Plans

Washington’s announcement to resume nuclear weapons testing triggered swift international reactions, particularly from the countries directly referenced in Trump’s post: Russia and China. Moscow called the move a dangerous shift that could push the world back toward a Cold War atmosphere. The Kremlin warned that if any country fails to observe a halt on nuclear weapons testing, Russia would act accordingly.

Russia had withdrawn its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, while keeping its signature and, publicly at least, maintaining a pledge not to conduct actual nuclear tests. Following Trump’s announcement—specifically on November 5—President Vladimir Putin instructed senior officials to draft proposals for possible nuclear tests, to be implemented if the United States carries out actual detonations.

China, meanwhile, has limited its response to an official statement urging the United States to fully comply with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, emphasizing that it remains committed to the “no first use” principle, which pledges not to use nuclear weapons preemptively.

Although China signed the treaty in 1996, like the United States, it has not ratified it. Still, China maintains that it has refrained from conducting any actual nuclear tests since then—though questions remain about the accuracy of that claim.

Open Sources Cast Doubt on China’s Secret Nuclear Weapons Tests

Despite China’s official assurances that it has halted nuclear testing, open-source intelligence and satellite imagery analyses suggest a gap between its statements and reality, raising serious doubts about Beijing’s nuclear transparency and the possibility of secret nuclear tests.

In 2021, in a remote area near the city of Ordos in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, satellite images revealed domes widely believed to be silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

A review by Misbar of the satellite imagery showed that none of these silos existed before the second half of June 2021. By September 8, 2021, one dome had appeared on a road network that would eventually host 12 domes across an area of roughly 76 square kilometers.

About eight kilometers south, another field containing 11 domes, also believed to be missile silos, appeared after June 2021, covering more than 118 square kilometers.

Both fields expanded rapidly, with dozens of domes added over a few months until the two fields nearly connected. However, the domes disappeared quickly, seemingly dismantled beginning in March 2022, with all silos gone by August 2022.

The dome-shaped silos function as construction shelters, meaning the key elements are what is built beneath them: the missile launch platforms, visible in satellite imagery as cleared areas in the desert once the domes are removed.

It is unclear whether all platforms actually housed missiles. Analysts believe China may use a “shell game” strategy, hiding operational launch sites among numerous decoy platforms to protect them from targeting or sabotage.

What China’s Expanding Nuclear Missile Fields Indicate

The field referenced above is just one of several that China has expanded across the country in recent years.

China continues to deny conducting any actual nuclear tests. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no suspicious nuclear activity in China and, in fact, has strengthened cooperation with the country in recent years.

However, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has tracked China’s nuclear missile arsenal expansion since 2002, according to an assessment submitted to the U.S. Congress.

The CIA report noted: “Although the number of Russian missiles is expected to decline, intelligence agencies anticipate that China’s ballistic missile force could multiply several times by 2015.”

This contrast between apparent active cooperation with the IAEA and China’s observed expansion of its nuclear-capable arsenal raises questions about the gap between official policy and actual capabilities.

In 1960, during China’s early efforts to develop its first nuclear bomb, leader Mao Zedong declared that the country “will produce some nuclear bombs, but has no intention of ever using them.” China successfully tested its first nuclear bomb in 1964 but developed little in terms of a ballistic missile arsenal, a situation that persisted into the 1980s.

During that decade, despite cautious efforts to expand its missile capabilities, President Deng Xiaoping stated that China “does not need a large number of weapons, only enough to create a deterrent effect.” This principle guided China’s official nuclear and missile policies for decades. In 2002, President Jiang Zemin reaffirmed China’s aim to maintain a limited strategic nuclear force while reiterating the long-standing “no first use” policy, which Beijing emphasized again in response to Trump’s announcement to resume U.S. nuclear testing.

While China’s expansion of dozens of missile fields and silos does not necessarily indicate secret nuclear testing—something open-source intelligence has not documented—it may reflect efforts to transition from a limited, mobile deterrent based on submarines and mobile missile platforms to a larger, more diverse nuclear force, consistent with Deng Xiaoping’s concept of a “deterrent force.”

Could Tensions Spark a New Cold War?

The United States is estimated to have at least 3,748 nuclear warheads, according to the latest U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Transparency Report released by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) in 2024. Of these, roughly 1,770 warheads are deployed and ready for use, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

By comparison, Russia’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at 4,309 warheads, including 1,718 deployed and operational, based on FAS estimates and a report published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in May 2025.

These figures indicate that both the United States and Russia have increased the reserve stockpiles of nuclear warheads.

China, meanwhile, is expanding its nuclear forces. Its stockpile is currently estimated at around 600 warheads, while U.S. Pentagon projections suggest Beijing could possess 1,000 warheads by 2030, contradicting former President Trump’s claim that China would match the U.S. nuclear arsenal within five years.

Amid Trump’s statements, China’s rapid expansion, and Russia’s enhancements, concerns are rising over signs of a resurgent global nuclear arms race. Such developments could mark a return to Cold War–era dynamics and place the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty under significant existential pressure.

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