Misbar Tracks Downed U.S. Refueling Aircraft in Iraq

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced Thursday evening, March 12, that a KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft crashed over Iraq. According to the statement, the incident involved two aircraft of the same type: one crashed in western Iraq, while the second landed safely.

CENTCOM said the incident occurred at approximately 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (19:00 UTC). In a later update, the command confirmed that all six crew members aboard the crashed aircraft were killed.

While the statement noted that the crash “was not the result of hostile or friendly fire,” Iraqi factions later claimed responsibility for downing the aircraft.

What Did Flightradar24 Detect?

Flight data from the tracking platform Flightradar24 recorded an emergency signal from a KC-135 aircraft bearing registration number 63-8017, which landed at Ben Gurion Airport at 18:35 UTC.

The aircraft declared a general emergency (Squawk 7700) while approaching Tel Aviv.

Images published by Israeli media showed a KC-135 aircraft that landed with significant damage to its vertical tail, surrounded by emergency crews at the airport.

Another U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft, bearing registration 62-3556, departed Tel Aviv at 05:17 UTC. Air-navigation platforms such as Flightradar24 did not record its return, suggesting it may be the aircraft that crashed.

To build a broader picture of the incident amid limited official information, Misbar’s team—assisted by artificial intelligence models—analyzed flight-tracking data for the Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker operated by the U.S. Air Force and bearing serial number 62-3556.

What the Data Shows

Available data covers the aircraft’s flight on March 12, 2026, which is believed to be its final mission before crashing in western Iraq during Operation Epic Fury.

Flightradar24 provides detailed data including geographic location, altitude, speed, and heading. These records indicate that the aircraft’s signal disappeared roughly 31 minutes after takeoff, an unusually short duration compared with its repeated missions in the region.

The aircraft departed Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv at 05:17 UTC, generally heading east-northeast, flying over Israel toward the Iraqi border.

The final tracking point at 05:48 UTC shows the aircraft turning southeast (150°–151°) at a speed of 390 knots and an altitude of 17,425 feet, above coordinates 32.0675°N, 36.9687°E—an area in western Iraq near the Jordanian border.

Flight-tracking data shows that between 05:46 and 05:48 UTC, the aircraft performed noticeable directional maneuvers over the tri-border region of Iraq, Jordan, and Syria, with its heading fluctuating between 51° and 182°.

These maneuvers may indicate:

• Entry into an orbit pattern in preparation for an aerial refueling operation
 • Evasive maneuvers or repositioning
 • The onset of the emergency that ultimately led to the crash

Comparing the Last Flight With Previous Missions

Aircraft 62-3556 arrived in Tel Aviv on February 28 from Joint Base Andrews (Camp Springs)—home to the 459th Air Refueling Wing, a U.S. Air Force Reserve unit.

An analysis of 10 flights conducted by the aircraft between February 28 and March 12, 2026, reveals a clear and coordinated operational pattern during the two weeks preceding the crash, with significant differences in the final mission.

The most notable differences include:

• A 92 percent reduction in tracking duration compared with the average flight
 • The lowest recorded stable cruising altitude (17,450 feet)
 • No return to base, consistent with the aircraft being lost in an aerial incident over western Iraq

Data also shows that all operational flights departed from Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv and returned there, indicating that Tel Aviv served as the aircraft’s forward operating base.

The average duration of the previous six operational missions was 6.71 hours, ranging between 4.09 and 8.34 hours. This aligns with typical KC-135 aerial refueling missions, which generally last four to ten hours depending on distance and the number of refueling operations.

By contrast, the final flight on March 12 was tracked for just 31.2 minutes (0.52 hours)—about 92 percent shorter than the average.

Stable cruising altitudes during earlier flights ranged between 18,612 and 28,585 feet, with an average of 24,175 feet—a typical range for aerial refueling operations that require coordination with fighter aircraft at different altitudes.

However, the March 12 mission recorded a cruising altitude of only 17,450 feet, 6,725 feet lower than the previous average and lower than any other recorded flight.

Between March 3 and March 9, the aircraft remained within 100 to 194 kilometers of Tel Aviv, operating east of Israel along looping or back-and-forth flight paths. These missions likely represent routine refueling operations supporting fighter aircraft heading east toward Iraq and Iran.

Flight data from March 11, which extended 1,368 kilometers from Tel Aviv deep into Iraqi airspace and lasted 3 hours and 24 minutes, indicates a direct aerial refueling mission within the Iraqi theater of operations.

The final mission on March 12 reached a maximum recorded distance of 197 kilometers from Tel Aviv at the last tracking point before the signal disappeared. The aircraft was traveling east when the data was lost, suggesting the actual distance traveled may have been greater and that it may have been repeating a route similar to the March 11 mission.

Flight activity between March 3 and March 12 shows daily missions, indicating an extremely high operational tempo consistent with an active military campaign. The timing of these flights suggests a mix of daytime and nighttime operations.

What Is the KC-135 Aircraft?

The KC-135 Stratotanker functions as a flying fuel station, enabling aircraft to refuel mid-air, extending their range and allowing them to remain in operational zones for longer periods.

According to the U.S. Air Force, its typical crew consists of three to four personnel: a pilot, co-pilot, and boom operator, who is responsible for refueling other aircraft in flight. Some missions may also include navigators, and the aircraft can be configured to transport cargo or medical patients.

The KC-135R is the upgraded version of the original KC-135A, equipped with CFM-56 engines, and forms the backbone of the U.S. Air Force’s aerial refueling capability.

The aircraft can carry up to 200,000 pounds of fuel, supplying fighter jets and bombers while airborne.

The loss of the refueling aircraft marks the fourth known loss of a crewed aircraft in the war with Iran, bringing the number of U.S. military fatalities to 13.

Last week, three F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets were downed over Kuwait due to friendly fire. All six crew members aboard those aircraft successfully ejected and survived.

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